3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

79% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.0 goals.

Who wins?

39%Guangzhou Dandelion 32%Draw 29%Changchun Xidu

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.0Guangzhou Dandelion expected goals 1.0Changchun Xidu

Over 1.5 goals 62%

Over 2.5 goals 33%

Over 3.5 goals 15%

Under 2.5 goals 67%

Under 3.5 goals 85%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 42%

Home team scores 63%

Away team scores 64%

Home team over 1.5 goals 27%

Away team over 1.5 goals 28%

Guangzhou Dandelion or draw 71%

Changchun Xidu or draw 61%

Either team wins 68%

Guangzhou Dandelion, draw no bet 57%

Changchun Xidu, draw no bet 43%

Guangzhou Dandelion +1.5 86%

Changchun Xidu +1.5 87%

Guangzhou Dandelion +1 (Asian) 83%

Changchun Xidu +1 (Asian) 84%

Guangzhou Dandelion or draw, 2 or more goals 40%

Changchun Xidu or draw, 2 or more goals 41%

Guangzhou Dandelion or draw, 3 or more goals 18%

Changchun Xidu or draw, 3 or more goals 19%

Guangzhou Dandelion win, both score 11%

Guangzhou Dandelion win, they blank 21%

Changchun Xidu win, both score 12%

Changchun Xidu win, they blank 22%

Guangzhou Dandelion score 2 or fewer 92%

Changchun Xidu score 2 or fewer 91%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.