Millwall win (draw = money back)

On your slip: Home win, draw no bet

78% sure

Millwall are the likelier winners at home, and a draw gives the stake back.

Who wins?

56%Millwall 25%Draw 19%Derby

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.9Millwall expected goals 1.0Derby

Over 1.5 goals 79%

Over 2.5 goals 54%

Over 3.5 goals 32%

Under 2.5 goals 46%

Under 3.5 goals 68%

Under 4.5 goals 84%

Both teams score 54%

Home team scores 84%

Away team scores 63%

Home team over 1.5 goals 56%

Away team over 1.5 goals 26%

Millwall or draw 81%

Derby or draw 44%

Either team wins 75%

Millwall, draw no bet 75%

Derby, draw no bet 25%

Millwall +1.5 93%

Derby +1.5 66%

Millwall +1 (Asian) 92%

Derby +1 (Asian) 56%

Millwall or draw, 2 or more goals 65%

Derby or draw, 2 or more goals 32%

Millwall or draw, 3 or more goals 43%

Derby or draw, 3 or more goals 17%

Millwall win, both score 26%

Millwall win, they blank 30%

Derby win, both score 10%

Derby win, they blank 9%

Millwall score 2 or fewer 71%

Derby score 2 or fewer 92%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.