3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

76% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.2 goals.

Who wins?

42%Fafe 30%Draw 27%Pacos Ferreira

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.1Fafe expected goals 1.0Pacos Ferreira

Over 1.5 goals 65%

Over 2.5 goals 37%

Over 3.5 goals 17%

Under 2.5 goals 63%

Under 3.5 goals 83%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 45%

Home team scores 68%

Away team scores 63%

Home team over 1.5 goals 32%

Away team over 1.5 goals 26%

Fafe or draw 73%

Pacos Ferreira or draw 58%

Either team wins 70%

Fafe, draw no bet 61%

Pacos Ferreira, draw no bet 39%

Fafe +1.5 88%

Pacos Ferreira +1.5 84%

Fafe +1 (Asian) 86%

Pacos Ferreira +1 (Asian) 79%

Fafe or draw, 2 or more goals 45%

Pacos Ferreira or draw, 2 or more goals 39%

Fafe or draw, 3 or more goals 23%

Pacos Ferreira or draw, 3 or more goals 18%

Fafe win, both score 14%

Fafe win, they blank 24%

Pacos Ferreira win, both score 11%

Pacos Ferreira win, they blank 19%

Fafe score 2 or fewer 89%

Pacos Ferreira score 2 or fewer 92%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.