3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

76% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.1 goals.

Who wins?

37%Semen Padang 30%Draw 33%Sumsel United

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.0Semen Padang expected goals 1.1Sumsel United

Over 1.5 goals 64%

Over 2.5 goals 36%

Over 3.5 goals 17%

Under 2.5 goals 64%

Under 3.5 goals 83%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 44%

Home team scores 64%

Away team scores 67%

Home team over 1.5 goals 27%

Away team over 1.5 goals 30%

Semen Padang or draw 67%

Sumsel United or draw 63%

Either team wins 70%

Semen Padang, draw no bet 53%

Sumsel United, draw no bet 47%

Semen Padang +1.5 85%

Sumsel United +1.5 87%

Semen Padang +1 (Asian) 81%

Sumsel United +1 (Asian) 84%

Semen Padang or draw, 2 or more goals 40%

Sumsel United or draw, 2 or more goals 43%

Semen Padang or draw, 3 or more goals 19%

Sumsel United or draw, 3 or more goals 21%

Semen Padang win, both score 12%

Semen Padang win, they blank 20%

Sumsel United win, both score 13%

Sumsel United win, they blank 23%

Semen Padang score 2 or fewer 92%

Sumsel United score 2 or fewer 90%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.