3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

78% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.0 goals.

Who wins?

38%Corinthians 31%Draw 32%Mirassol

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.9Corinthians expected goals 1.1Mirassol

Over 1.5 goals 62%

Over 2.5 goals 34%

Over 3.5 goals 15%

Under 2.5 goals 66%

Under 3.5 goals 85%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 42%

Home team scores 61%

Away team scores 67%

Home team over 1.5 goals 24%

Away team over 1.5 goals 30%

Corinthians or draw 68%

Mirassol or draw 62%

Either team wins 69%

Corinthians, draw no bet 54%

Mirassol, draw no bet 46%

Corinthians +1.5 84%

Mirassol +1.5 89%

Corinthians +1 (Asian) 80%

Mirassol +1 (Asian) 87%

Corinthians or draw, 2 or more goals 37%

Mirassol or draw, 2 or more goals 43%

Corinthians or draw, 3 or more goals 17%

Mirassol or draw, 3 or more goals 21%

Corinthians win, both score 10%

Corinthians win, they blank 19%

Mirassol win, both score 13%

Mirassol win, they blank 25%

Corinthians score 2 or fewer 93%

Mirassol score 2 or fewer 90%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.