3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

75% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.2 goals.

Who wins?

41%Carrarese 30%Draw 28%Arezzo

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.2Carrarese expected goals 1.0Arezzo

Over 1.5 goals 67%

Over 2.5 goals 39%

Over 3.5 goals 19%

Under 2.5 goals 61%

Under 3.5 goals 81%

Under 4.5 goals 92%

Both teams score 46%

Home team scores 71%

Away team scores 62%

Home team over 1.5 goals 36%

Away team over 1.5 goals 26%

Carrarese or draw 72%

Arezzo or draw 59%

Either team wins 70%

Carrarese, draw no bet 60%

Arezzo, draw no bet 40%

Carrarese +1.5 90%

Arezzo +1.5 81%

Carrarese or draw, 2+ goals 48%

Arezzo or draw, 2+ goals 37%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.