AC Milan win (draw = money back)

On your slip: Home win, draw no bet

78% sure

AC Milan are the likelier winners at home, and a draw gives the stake back.

Who wins?

55%AC Milan 27%Draw 18%Bologna

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.5AC Milan expected goals 0.8Bologna

Over 1.5 goals 67%

Over 2.5 goals 40%

Over 3.5 goals 19%

Under 2.5 goals 60%

Under 3.5 goals 81%

Under 4.5 goals 92%

Both teams score 43%

Home team scores 78%

Away team scores 53%

Home team over 1.5 goals 44%

Away team over 1.5 goals 18%

AC Milan or draw 82%

Bologna or draw 45%

Either team wins 73%

AC Milan, draw no bet 76%

Bologna, draw no bet 24%

AC Milan +1.5 93%

Bologna +1.5 71%

AC Milan or draw, 2+ goals 56%

Bologna or draw, 2+ goals 28%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.