3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

77% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.1 goals.

Who wins?

30%AD Marco 09 31%Draw 38%Fafe

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.0AD Marco 09 expected goals 1.1Fafe

Over 1.5 goals 64%

Over 2.5 goals 36%

Over 3.5 goals 17%

Under 2.5 goals 64%

Under 3.5 goals 83%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 44%

Home team scores 63%

Away team scores 68%

Home team over 1.5 goals 26%

Away team over 1.5 goals 32%

AD Marco 09 or draw 62%

Fafe or draw 70%

Either team wins 69%

AD Marco 09, draw no bet 44%

Fafe, draw no bet 56%

AD Marco 09 +1.5 84%

Fafe +1.5 88%

AD Marco 09 or draw, 2+ goals 39%

Fafe or draw, 2+ goals 45%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.