3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

79% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.1 goals.

Who wins?

37%Volga Ulyanovsk 31%Draw 31%Veles

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.0Volga Ulyanovsk expected goals 1.0Veles

Over 1.5 goals 62%

Over 2.5 goals 34%

Over 3.5 goals 15%

Under 2.5 goals 66%

Under 3.5 goals 85%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 43%

Home team scores 65%

Away team scores 64%

Home team over 1.5 goals 28%

Away team over 1.5 goals 27%

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw 69%

Veles or draw 63%

Either team wins 69%

Volga Ulyanovsk, draw no bet 55%

Veles, draw no bet 45%

Volga Ulyanovsk +1.5 87%

Veles +1.5 86%

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw, 2+ goals 41%

Veles or draw, 2+ goals 40%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.