3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

82% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.9 goals.

Who wins?

33%Bendel Insurance 32%Draw 35%Rivers United FC

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.0Bendel Insurance expected goals 0.9Rivers United FC

Over 1.5 goals 57%

Over 2.5 goals 29%

Over 3.5 goals 12%

Under 2.5 goals 71%

Under 3.5 goals 88%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 38%

Home team scores 63%

Away team scores 58%

Home team over 1.5 goals 26%

Away team over 1.5 goals 22%

Bendel Insurance or draw 65%

Rivers United FC or draw 67%

Either team wins 68%

Bendel Insurance, draw no bet 48%

Rivers United FC, draw no bet 52%

Bendel Insurance +1.5 89%

Rivers United FC +1.5 86%

Bendel Insurance or draw, 2+ goals 40%

Rivers United FC or draw, 2+ goals 35%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.