3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

77% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.2 goals.

Who wins?

39%Atlas 29%Draw 31%Puebla

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.0Atlas expected goals 1.1Puebla

Over 1.5 goals 65%

Over 2.5 goals 37%

Over 3.5 goals 17%

Under 2.5 goals 63%

Under 3.5 goals 83%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 45%

Home team scores 64%

Away team scores 68%

Home team over 1.5 goals 27%

Away team over 1.5 goals 32%

Atlas or draw 69%

Puebla or draw 61%

Either team wins 71%

Atlas, draw no bet 55%

Puebla, draw no bet 45%

Atlas +1.5 84%

Puebla +1.5 88%

Atlas or draw, 2+ goals 40%

Puebla or draw, 2+ goals 45%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.