3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

77% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.2 goals.

Who wins?

42%Sporting CP B 30%Draw 27%Portimonense

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.2Sporting CP B expected goals 1.0Portimonense

Over 1.5 goals 66%

Over 2.5 goals 38%

Over 3.5 goals 18%

Under 2.5 goals 62%

Under 3.5 goals 82%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 46%

Home team scores 71%

Away team scores 62%

Home team over 1.5 goals 35%

Away team over 1.5 goals 26%

Sporting CP B or draw 73%

Portimonense or draw 58%

Either team wins 70%

Sporting CP B, draw no bet 61%

Portimonense, draw no bet 39%

Sporting CP B +1.5 89%

Portimonense +1.5 81%

Sporting CP B or draw, 2+ goals 48%

Portimonense or draw, 2+ goals 37%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.