West Ham win (draw = money back)

On your slip: Home win, draw no bet

76% sure

West Ham are the likelier winners at home, and a draw gives the stake back.

Who wins?

57%West Ham 24%Draw 19%Southampton

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.9West Ham expected goals 1.0Southampton

Over 1.5 goals 78%

Over 2.5 goals 53%

Over 3.5 goals 31%

Under 2.5 goals 47%

Under 3.5 goals 69%

Under 4.5 goals 85%

Both teams score 53%

Home team scores 84%

Away team scores 62%

Home team over 1.5 goals 55%

Away team over 1.5 goals 25%

West Ham or draw 81%

Southampton or draw 43%

Either team wins 76%

West Ham, draw no bet 75%

Southampton, draw no bet 25%

West Ham +1.5 93%

Southampton +1.5 66%

West Ham or draw, 2+ goals 65%

Southampton or draw, 2+ goals 31%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.