3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

76% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.3 goals.

Who wins?

42%Alverca 30%Draw 28%Arouca

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.2Alverca expected goals 1.0Arouca

Over 1.5 goals 67%

Over 2.5 goals 39%

Over 3.5 goals 19%

Under 2.5 goals 61%

Under 3.5 goals 81%

Under 4.5 goals 92%

Both teams score 47%

Home team scores 71%

Away team scores 63%

Home team over 1.5 goals 36%

Away team over 1.5 goals 27%

Alverca or draw 72%

Arouca or draw 58%

Either team wins 70%

Alverca, draw no bet 60%

Arouca, draw no bet 40%

Alverca +1.5 89%

Arouca +1.5 81%

Alverca or draw, 2+ goals 48%

Arouca or draw, 2+ goals 38%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.