Arsenal win (draw = money back)

On your slip: Home win, draw no bet

78% sure

Arsenal are the likelier winners at home, and a draw gives the stake back.

Who wins?

56%Arsenal 27%Draw 17%Everton

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.4Arsenal expected goals 0.7Everton

Over 1.5 goals 64%

Over 2.5 goals 36%

Over 3.5 goals 17%

Under 2.5 goals 64%

Under 3.5 goals 83%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 41%

Home team scores 75%

Away team scores 52%

Home team over 1.5 goals 41%

Away team over 1.5 goals 17%

Arsenal or draw 83%

Everton or draw 44%

Either team wins 73%

Arsenal, draw no bet 77%

Everton, draw no bet 23%

Arsenal +1.5 93%

Everton +1.5 74%

Arsenal or draw, 2+ goals 53%

Everton or draw, 2+ goals 28%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.