Manchester City win or draw, plus 2+ goals

On your slip: Away or draw & over 1.5 goals

76% sure

Manchester City should avoid defeat and this match should have goals, about 3.4.

Who wins?

15%Aston Villa 20%Draw 65%Manchester City

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.0Aston Villa expected goals 2.4Manchester City

Over 1.5 goals 86%

Over 2.5 goals 67%

Over 3.5 goals 45%

Under 2.5 goals 33%

Under 3.5 goals 55%

Under 4.5 goals 74%

Both teams score 58%

Home team scores 63%

Away team scores 88%

Home team over 1.5 goals 26%

Away team over 1.5 goals 70%

Aston Villa or draw 35%

Manchester City or draw 85%

Either team wins 80%

Aston Villa, draw no bet 19%

Manchester City, draw no bet 81%

Aston Villa +1.5 53%

Manchester City +1.5 92%

Aston Villa or draw, 2+ goals 25%

Manchester City or draw, 2+ goals 76%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.