2+ goals

On your slip: Over 1.5 goals

79% sure

Both sides' scoring and conceding rates point to about 3.0 goals in this match.

Who wins?

27%Bolton 24%Draw 48%Middlesbrough

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.4Bolton expected goals 1.6Middlesbrough

Over 1.5 goals 82%

Over 2.5 goals 58%

Over 3.5 goals 36%

Under 2.5 goals 42%

Under 3.5 goals 64%

Under 4.5 goals 81%

Both teams score 62%

Home team scores 75%

Away team scores 81%

Home team over 1.5 goals 41%

Away team over 1.5 goals 49%

Bolton or draw 52%

Middlesbrough or draw 73%

Either team wins 76%

Bolton, draw no bet 36%

Middlesbrough, draw no bet 64%

Bolton +1.5 78%

Middlesbrough +1.5 85%

Bolton or draw, 2+ goals 46%

Middlesbrough or draw, 2+ goals 56%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.