3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

83% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.9 goals.

Who wins?

41%Alebrijes de Oaxaca 32%Draw 27%Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.1Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected goals 0.8Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Over 1.5 goals 57%

Over 2.5 goals 28%

Over 3.5 goals 12%

Under 2.5 goals 72%

Under 3.5 goals 88%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 37%

Home team scores 66%

Away team scores 55%

Home team over 1.5 goals 29%

Away team over 1.5 goals 19%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw 73%

Cruz Azul Hidalgo or draw 59%

Either team wins 68%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca, draw no bet 61%

Cruz Azul Hidalgo, draw no bet 39%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca +1.5 92%

Cruz Azul Hidalgo +1.5 83%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw, 2+ goals 42%

Cruz Azul Hidalgo or draw, 2+ goals 32%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.