3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

80% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.0 goals.

Who wins?

40%MOIK 31%Draw 30%Karvan

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.2MOIK expected goals 0.9Karvan

Over 1.5 goals 62%

Over 2.5 goals 34%

Over 3.5 goals 15%

Under 2.5 goals 66%

Under 3.5 goals 85%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 42%

Home team scores 69%

Away team scores 59%

Home team over 1.5 goals 32%

Away team over 1.5 goals 22%

MOIK or draw 70%

Karvan or draw 60%

Either team wins 69%

MOIK, draw no bet 57%

Karvan, draw no bet 43%

MOIK +1.5 91%

Karvan +1.5 82%

MOIK or draw, 2+ goals 46%

Karvan or draw, 2+ goals 35%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.