FC Masters
All picks
J1 League, Japan
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka

Solid pick

Nagoya Grampus win or draw, plus 2+ goals

On your slip: Home or draw & over 1.5 goals

Nagoya Grampus are hard to beat at home and this match should have goals, about 3.3.

Who wins?

58%Nagoya Grampus 22%Draw 20%Cerezo Osaka

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

Goals

2.4Nagoya Grampus expected goals 0.9Cerezo Osaka
Over 1.5 goals 85%
Over 2.5 goals 64%
Over 3.5 goals 42%
Under 2.5 goals 36%
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Under 4.5 goals 76%
Both teams score 56%
Home team scores 90%
Away team scores 62%
Home team over 1.5 goals 68%
Away team over 1.5 goals 25%

Safer ways to back a side

Nagoya Grampus or draw 80%
Cerezo Osaka or draw 42%
Either team wins 78%
Nagoya Grampus, draw no bet 74%
Cerezo Osaka, draw no bet 26%
Nagoya Grampus +1.5 93%
Cerezo Osaka +1.5 54%
Nagoya Grampus or draw, 2+ goals 75%
Cerezo Osaka or draw, 2+ goals 25%

The numbers behind it

Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
1.2Scored per game0.9
1.6Conceded per game1.6
2.2Scored, last 51.8
10Games this season10

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.