3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

78% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.1 goals.

Who wins?

31%Puebla 30%Draw 39%Monterrey

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.1Puebla expected goals 1.0Monterrey

Over 1.5 goals 64%

Over 2.5 goals 36%

Over 3.5 goals 17%

Under 2.5 goals 64%

Under 3.5 goals 83%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 44%

Home team scores 66%

Away team scores 65%

Home team over 1.5 goals 29%

Away team over 1.5 goals 28%

Puebla or draw 61%

Monterrey or draw 69%

Either team wins 70%

Puebla, draw no bet 45%

Monterrey, draw no bet 55%

Puebla +1.5 87%

Monterrey +1.5 86%

Puebla or draw, 2+ goals 42%

Monterrey or draw, 2+ goals 41%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.