Luton win (draw = money back)

On your slip: Home win, draw no bet

81% sure

Luton are the likelier winners at home, and a draw gives the stake back.

Who wins?

63%Luton 21%Draw 16%Barnsley

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

2.2Luton expected goals 1.0Barnsley

Over 1.5 goals 83%

Over 2.5 goals 61%

Over 3.5 goals 39%

Under 2.5 goals 39%

Under 3.5 goals 61%

Under 4.5 goals 79%

Both teams score 56%

Home team scores 89%

Away team scores 63%

Home team over 1.5 goals 64%

Away team over 1.5 goals 26%

Luton or draw 84%

Barnsley or draw 37%

Either team wins 79%

Luton, draw no bet 80%

Barnsley, draw no bet 20%

Luton +1.5 93%

Barnsley +1.5 59%

Luton or draw, 2+ goals 71%

Barnsley or draw, 2+ goals 28%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.