3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

83% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.9 goals.

Who wins?

42%Al Diriyah 30%Draw 27%Al Riyadh

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.9Al Diriyah expected goals 0.9Al Riyadh

Over 1.5 goals 57%

Over 2.5 goals 29%

Over 3.5 goals 12%

Under 2.5 goals 71%

Under 3.5 goals 88%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 38%

Home team scores 61%

Away team scores 61%

Home team over 1.5 goals 24%

Away team over 1.5 goals 25%

Al Diriyah or draw 73%

Al Riyadh or draw 58%

Either team wins 70%

Al Diriyah, draw no bet 61%

Al Riyadh, draw no bet 39%

Al Diriyah +1.5 87%

Al Riyadh +1.5 88%

Al Diriyah or draw, 2+ goals 37%

Al Riyadh or draw, 2+ goals 38%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.