3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

77% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.1 goals.

Who wins?

27%Derry City 31%Draw 43%St Patrick's Athl.

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.9Derry City expected goals 1.2St Patrick's Athl.

Over 1.5 goals 63%

Over 2.5 goals 35%

Over 3.5 goals 16%

Under 2.5 goals 65%

Under 3.5 goals 84%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 43%

Home team scores 59%

Away team scores 70%

Home team over 1.5 goals 23%

Away team over 1.5 goals 34%

Derry City or draw 57%

St Patrick's Athl. or draw 73%

Either team wins 69%

Derry City, draw no bet 38%

St Patrick's Athl., draw no bet 62%

Derry City +1.5 81%

St Patrick's Athl. +1.5 91%

Derry City or draw, 2+ goals 35%

St Patrick's Athl. or draw, 2+ goals 47%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.