3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

76% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.1 goals.

Who wins?

41%Real Santander 31%Draw 28%Leones FC

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.2Real Santander expected goals 1.0Leones FC

Over 1.5 goals 64%

Over 2.5 goals 36%

Over 3.5 goals 17%

Under 2.5 goals 64%

Under 3.5 goals 83%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 44%

Home team scores 69%

Away team scores 62%

Home team over 1.5 goals 33%

Away team over 1.5 goals 25%

Real Santander or draw 72%

Leones FC or draw 59%

Either team wins 69%

Real Santander, draw no bet 60%

Leones FC, draw no bet 40%

Real Santander +1.5 89%

Leones FC +1.5 82%

Real Santander or draw, 2+ goals 46%

Leones FC or draw, 2+ goals 37%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.