3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

77% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.1 goals.

Who wins?

36%San Telmo 34%Draw 30%Defensores De Belgrano

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.1San Telmo expected goals 1.0Defensores De Belgrano

Over 1.5 goals 63%

Over 2.5 goals 34%

Over 3.5 goals 16%

Under 2.5 goals 66%

Under 3.5 goals 84%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 43%

Home team scores 67%

Away team scores 62%

Home team over 1.5 goals 31%

Away team over 1.5 goals 25%

San Telmo or draw 70%

Defensores De Belgrano or draw 64%

Either team wins 66%

San Telmo, draw no bet 54%

Defensores De Belgrano, draw no bet 46%

San Telmo +1.5 89%

Defensores De Belgrano +1.5 84%

San Telmo or draw, 2+ goals 44%

Defensores De Belgrano or draw, 2+ goals 38%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.