2+ goals

On your slip: Over 1.5 goals

79% sure

Both sides' scoring and conceding rates point to about 3.2 goals in this match.

Who wins?

28%Jong Ajax 24%Draw 48%De Graafschap

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.3Jong Ajax expected goals 1.9De Graafschap

Over 1.5 goals 83%

Over 2.5 goals 61%

Over 3.5 goals 39%

Under 2.5 goals 39%

Under 3.5 goals 61%

Under 4.5 goals 79%

Both teams score 62%

Home team scores 72%

Away team scores 85%

Home team over 1.5 goals 36%

Away team over 1.5 goals 57%

Jong Ajax or draw 52%

De Graafschap or draw 72%

Either team wins 76%

Jong Ajax, draw no bet 37%

De Graafschap, draw no bet 63%

Jong Ajax +1.5 70%

De Graafschap +1.5 90%

Jong Ajax or draw, 2+ goals 39%

De Graafschap or draw, 2+ goals 64%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.