3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

82% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.8 goals.

Who wins?

30%Sūduva Marijampolė 33%Draw 37%Kauno Žalgiris

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.9Sūduva Marijampolė expected goals 0.9Kauno Žalgiris

Over 1.5 goals 55%

Over 2.5 goals 27%

Over 3.5 goals 11%

Under 2.5 goals 73%

Under 3.5 goals 89%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 37%

Home team scores 60%

Away team scores 59%

Home team over 1.5 goals 24%

Away team over 1.5 goals 22%

Sūduva Marijampolė or draw 63%

Kauno Žalgiris or draw 70%

Either team wins 67%

Sūduva Marijampolė, draw no bet 45%

Kauno Žalgiris, draw no bet 55%

Sūduva Marijampolė +1.5 89%

Kauno Žalgiris +1.5 87%

Sūduva Marijampolė or draw, 2+ goals 37%

Kauno Žalgiris or draw, 2+ goals 36%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.