2 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 2.5 goals

75% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.3 goals.

Who wins?

30%Changchun Xidu 37%Draw 32%Hubei Chufeng Heli

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.5Changchun Xidu expected goals 0.8Hubei Chufeng Heli

Over 1.5 goals 39%

Over 2.5 goals 15%

Over 3.5 goals 4%

Under 2.5 goals 80%

Under 3.5 goals 90%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 23%

Home team scores 41%

Away team scores 54%

Home team over 1.5 goals 10%

Away team over 1.5 goals 19%

Changchun Xidu or draw 68%

Hubei Chufeng Heli or draw 70%

Either team wins 63%

Changchun Xidu, draw no bet 49%

Hubei Chufeng Heli, draw no bet 51%

Changchun Xidu +1.5 88%

Hubei Chufeng Heli +1.5 92%

Changchun Xidu or draw, 2+ goals 22%

Hubei Chufeng Heli or draw, 2+ goals 31%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.