3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

78% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.1 goals.

Who wins?

35%Angers 30%Draw 35%Marseille

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.1Angers expected goals 0.9Marseille

Over 1.5 goals 63%

Over 2.5 goals 35%

Over 3.5 goals 16%

Under 2.5 goals 65%

Under 3.5 goals 84%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 43%

Home team scores 68%

Away team scores 61%

Home team over 1.5 goals 32%

Away team over 1.5 goals 25%

Angers or draw 65%

Marseille or draw 65%

Either team wins 70%

Angers, draw no bet 50%

Marseille, draw no bet 50%

Angers +1.5 89%

Marseille +1.5 83%

Angers or draw, 2+ goals 45%

Marseille or draw, 2+ goals 37%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.