3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

76% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.2 goals.

Who wins?

29%Semen Padang 30%Draw 41%PSMS Medan

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.9Semen Padang expected goals 1.3PSMS Medan

Over 1.5 goals 66%

Over 2.5 goals 38%

Over 3.5 goals 18%

Under 2.5 goals 62%

Under 3.5 goals 82%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 44%

Home team scores 59%

Away team scores 73%

Home team over 1.5 goals 23%

Away team over 1.5 goals 37%

Semen Padang or draw 59%

PSMS Medan or draw 71%

Either team wins 70%

Semen Padang, draw no bet 41%

PSMS Medan, draw no bet 59%

Semen Padang +1.5 79%

PSMS Medan +1.5 91%

Semen Padang or draw, 2+ goals 34%

PSMS Medan or draw, 2+ goals 50%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.