3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

83% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.8 goals.

Who wins?

36%Bristol City 32%Draw 32%Sheffield United

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.9Bristol City expected goals 0.9Sheffield United

Over 1.5 goals 56%

Over 2.5 goals 28%

Over 3.5 goals 11%

Under 2.5 goals 72%

Under 3.5 goals 89%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 37%

Home team scores 58%

Away team scores 61%

Home team over 1.5 goals 22%

Away team over 1.5 goals 25%

Bristol City or draw 68%

Sheffield United or draw 64%

Either team wins 68%

Bristol City, draw no bet 54%

Sheffield United, draw no bet 46%

Bristol City +1.5 87%

Sheffield United +1.5 89%

Bristol City or draw, 2+ goals 35%

Sheffield United or draw, 2+ goals 38%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.