Stoke City win or draw

On your slip: Away or draw

76% sure

Stoke City are the stronger side and should avoid defeat, even away from home.

Who wins?

25%Derby 26%Draw 49%Stoke City

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.1Derby expected goals 1.8Stoke City

Over 1.5 goals 80%

Over 2.5 goals 56%

Over 3.5 goals 34%

Under 2.5 goals 44%

Under 3.5 goals 66%

Under 4.5 goals 83%

Both teams score 57%

Home team scores 66%

Away team scores 84%

Home team over 1.5 goals 29%

Away team over 1.5 goals 55%

Derby or draw 51%

Stoke City or draw 75%

Either team wins 74%

Derby, draw no bet 34%

Stoke City, draw no bet 66%

Derby +1.5 68%

Stoke City +1.5 92%

Derby or draw, 2+ goals 35%

Stoke City or draw, 2+ goals 64%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.