Middlesbrough win (draw = money back)

On your slip: Home win, draw no bet

78% sure

Middlesbrough are the likelier winners at home, and a draw gives the stake back.

Who wins?

61%Middlesbrough 20%Draw 18%Cardiff

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

2.4Middlesbrough expected goals 1.2Cardiff

Over 1.5 goals 88%

Over 2.5 goals 70%

Over 3.5 goals 48%

Under 2.5 goals 30%

Under 3.5 goals 52%

Under 4.5 goals 71%

Both teams score 65%

Home team scores 90%

Away team scores 71%

Home team over 1.5 goals 68%

Away team over 1.5 goals 35%

Middlesbrough or draw 82%

Cardiff or draw 39%

Either team wins 80%

Middlesbrough, draw no bet 77%

Cardiff, draw no bet 23%

Middlesbrough +1.5 93%

Cardiff +1.5 60%

Middlesbrough or draw, 2+ goals 73%

Cardiff or draw, 2+ goals 33%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.