2+ goals

On your slip: Over 1.5 goals

80% sure

Both sides' scoring and conceding rates point to about 3.1 goals in this match.

Who wins?

50%Everton 24%Draw 27%Chelsea

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

2.1Everton expected goals 1.1Chelsea

Over 1.5 goals 83%

Over 2.5 goals 61%

Over 3.5 goals 38%

Under 2.5 goals 39%

Under 3.5 goals 62%

Under 4.5 goals 79%

Both teams score 58%

Home team scores 87%

Away team scores 66%

Home team over 1.5 goals 61%

Away team over 1.5 goals 29%

Everton or draw 73%

Chelsea or draw 50%

Either team wins 76%

Everton, draw no bet 65%

Chelsea, draw no bet 35%

Everton +1.5 93%

Chelsea +1.5 63%

Everton or draw, 2+ goals 69%

Chelsea or draw, 2+ goals 31%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.