3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

76% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 2.1 goals.

Who wins?

43%Karbala 31%Draw 26%Gharraf

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.3Karbala expected goals 0.7Gharraf

Over 1.5 goals 63%

Over 2.5 goals 34%

Over 3.5 goals 16%

Under 2.5 goals 66%

Under 3.5 goals 84%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 40%

Home team scores 74%

Away team scores 53%

Home team over 1.5 goals 39%

Away team over 1.5 goals 17%

Karbala or draw 74%

Gharraf or draw 57%

Either team wins 69%

Karbala, draw no bet 62%

Gharraf, draw no bet 38%

Karbala +1.5 93%

Gharraf +1.5 76%

Karbala or draw, 2+ goals 51%

Gharraf or draw, 2+ goals 29%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.