2 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 2.5 goals

75% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.6 goals.

Who wins?

34%Henan FC 33%Draw 33%Tianjin Teda

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.7Henan FC expected goals 0.9Tianjin Teda

Over 1.5 goals 49%

Over 2.5 goals 22%

Over 3.5 goals 8%

Under 2.5 goals 78%

Under 3.5 goals 90%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 31%

Home team scores 49%

Away team scores 60%

Home team over 1.5 goals 15%

Away team over 1.5 goals 24%

Henan FC or draw 67%

Tianjin Teda or draw 66%

Either team wins 67%

Henan FC, draw no bet 51%

Tianjin Teda, draw no bet 49%

Henan FC +1.5 85%

Tianjin Teda +1.5 92%

Henan FC or draw, 2+ goals 28%

Tianjin Teda or draw, 2+ goals 37%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.