2+ goals

On your slip: Over 1.5 goals

75% sure

Both sides' scoring and conceding rates point to about 2.8 goals in this match.

Who wins?

33%Heerenveen 25%Draw 42%Excelsior

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.0Heerenveen expected goals 1.8Excelsior

Over 1.5 goals 78%

Over 2.5 goals 53%

Over 3.5 goals 30%

Under 2.5 goals 47%

Under 3.5 goals 70%

Under 4.5 goals 85%

Both teams score 54%

Home team scores 64%

Away team scores 83%

Home team over 1.5 goals 27%

Away team over 1.5 goals 53%

Heerenveen or draw 58%

Excelsior or draw 67%

Either team wins 75%

Heerenveen, draw no bet 44%

Excelsior, draw no bet 56%

Heerenveen +1.5 69%

Excelsior +1.5 92%

Heerenveen or draw, 2+ goals 34%

Excelsior or draw, 2+ goals 62%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.