3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

81% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.9 goals.

Who wins?

33%Quindio 33%Draw 34%Real Cartagena

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.9Quindio expected goals 1.0Real Cartagena

Over 1.5 goals 57%

Over 2.5 goals 29%

Over 3.5 goals 12%

Under 2.5 goals 71%

Under 3.5 goals 88%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 38%

Home team scores 59%

Away team scores 62%

Home team over 1.5 goals 23%

Away team over 1.5 goals 25%

Quindio or draw 66%

Real Cartagena or draw 67%

Either team wins 67%

Quindio, draw no bet 50%

Real Cartagena, draw no bet 50%

Quindio +1.5 87%

Real Cartagena +1.5 89%

Quindio or draw, 2+ goals 36%

Real Cartagena or draw, 2+ goals 39%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.