2 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 2.5 goals

79% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.4 goals.

Who wins?

51%CD Marathon 33%Draw 16%Olancho

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.0CD Marathon expected goals 0.4Olancho

Over 1.5 goals 42%

Over 2.5 goals 17%

Over 3.5 goals 5%

Under 2.5 goals 80%

Under 3.5 goals 90%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 21%

Home team scores 64%

Away team scores 32%

Home team over 1.5 goals 27%

Away team over 1.5 goals 6%

CD Marathon or draw 84%

Olancho or draw 49%

Either team wins 67%

CD Marathon, draw no bet 77%

Olancho, draw no bet 23%

CD Marathon +1.5 93%

Olancho +1.5 79%

CD Marathon or draw, 2+ goals 37%

Olancho or draw, 2+ goals 16%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.