2 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 2.5 goals

75% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.7 goals.

Who wins?

62%Envigado 27%Draw 11%Real Santander

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.4Envigado expected goals 0.3Real Santander

Over 1.5 goals 51%

Over 2.5 goals 24%

Over 3.5 goals 9%

Under 2.5 goals 76%

Under 3.5 goals 90%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 20%

Home team scores 75%

Away team scores 25%

Home team over 1.5 goals 41%

Away team over 1.5 goals 3%

Envigado or draw 89%

Real Santander or draw 38%

Either team wins 73%

Envigado, draw no bet 86%

Real Santander, draw no bet 14%

Envigado +1.5 93%

Real Santander +1.5 66%

Envigado or draw, 2+ goals 49%

Real Santander or draw, 2+ goals 11%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.