3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

85% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.6 goals.

Who wins?

35%Yichun Grand Tiger 36%Draw 28%Changchun Xidu

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.8Yichun Grand Tiger expected goals 0.8Changchun Xidu

Over 1.5 goals 48%

Over 2.5 goals 21%

Over 3.5 goals 8%

Under 2.5 goals 79%

Under 3.5 goals 90%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 31%

Home team scores 56%

Away team scores 54%

Home team over 1.5 goals 20%

Away team over 1.5 goals 18%

Yichun Grand Tiger or draw 72%

Changchun Xidu or draw 65%

Either team wins 64%

Yichun Grand Tiger, draw no bet 55%

Changchun Xidu, draw no bet 45%

Yichun Grand Tiger +1.5 90%

Changchun Xidu +1.5 89%

Yichun Grand Tiger or draw, 2+ goals 33%

Changchun Xidu or draw, 2+ goals 32%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.