3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

85% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.6 goals.

Who wins?

33%Livyi Bereh 35%Draw 33%Zorya Luhansk

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.8Livyi Bereh expected goals 0.8Zorya Luhansk

Over 1.5 goals 49%

Over 2.5 goals 22%

Over 3.5 goals 8%

Under 2.5 goals 78%

Under 3.5 goals 90%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 32%

Home team scores 56%

Away team scores 54%

Home team over 1.5 goals 20%

Away team over 1.5 goals 18%

Livyi Bereh or draw 67%

Zorya Luhansk or draw 67%

Either team wins 65%

Livyi Bereh, draw no bet 50%

Zorya Luhansk, draw no bet 50%

Livyi Bereh +1.5 90%

Zorya Luhansk +1.5 89%

Livyi Bereh or draw, 2+ goals 34%

Zorya Luhansk or draw, 2+ goals 32%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.