2+ goals

On your slip: Over 1.5 goals

86% sure

Both sides' scoring and conceding rates point to about 4.1 goals in this match.

Who wins?

23%Chapecoense 22%Draw 54%Athletico Paranaense

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

1.6Chapecoense expected goals 2.5Athletico Paranaense

Over 1.5 goals 88%

Over 2.5 goals 77%

Over 3.5 goals 58%

Under 2.5 goals 23%

Under 3.5 goals 42%

Under 4.5 goals 62%

Both teams score 73%

Home team scores 79%

Away team scores 88%

Home team over 1.5 goals 46%

Away team over 1.5 goals 72%

Chapecoense or draw 46%

Athletico Paranaense or draw 77%

Either team wins 78%

Chapecoense, draw no bet 30%

Athletico Paranaense, draw no bet 70%

Chapecoense +1.5 62%

Athletico Paranaense +1.5 90%

Chapecoense or draw, 2+ goals 38%

Athletico Paranaense or draw, 2+ goals 72%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.