3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

82% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.9 goals.

Who wins?

44%QPR 34%Draw 22%Derby

1.1QPR expected goals 0.7Derby

Over 1.5 goals 57%

Over 2.5 goals 29%

Over 3.5 goals 12%

Under 2.5 goals 71%

Under 3.5 goals 88%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 36%

Home team scores 68%

Away team scores 52%

Home team over 1.5 goals 31%

Away team over 1.5 goals 17%

QPR or draw 78%

Derby or draw 56%

Either team wins 66%

QPR, draw no bet 66%

Derby, draw no bet 34%

QPR +1.5 93%

Derby +1.5 81%

QPR or draw, 2+ goals 45%

Derby or draw, 2+ goals 29%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.