3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

82% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.8 goals.

Who wins?

54%Italy Women 25%Draw 21%Belarus Women

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.9Italy Women expected goals 0.9Belarus Women

Over 1.5 goals 55%

Over 2.5 goals 27%

Over 3.5 goals 11%

Under 2.5 goals 73%

Under 3.5 goals 89%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 37%

Home team scores 60%

Away team scores 59%

Home team over 1.5 goals 23%

Away team over 1.5 goals 23%

Italy Women or draw 79%

Belarus Women or draw 46%

Either team wins 75%

Italy Women, draw no bet 72%

Belarus Women, draw no bet 28%

Italy Women +1.5 88%

Belarus Women +1.5 88%

Italy Women or draw, 2+ goals 37%

Belarus Women or draw, 2+ goals 36%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.