3 goals or fewer

On your slip: Under 3.5 goals

83% sure

Two tight defences and modest attacks point to a low-scoring game, about 1.7 goals.

Who wins?

23%Fajr Sepasi 31%Draw 46%Aluminium Arak

Blends our model with a second, independent prediction model.

0.4Fajr Sepasi expected goals 1.3Aluminium Arak

Over 1.5 goals 52%

Over 2.5 goals 24%

Over 3.5 goals 9%

Under 2.5 goals 76%

Under 3.5 goals 90%

Under 4.5 goals 93%

Both teams score 25%

Home team scores 33%

Away team scores 73%

Home team over 1.5 goals 6%

Away team over 1.5 goals 37%

Fajr Sepasi or draw 54%

Aluminium Arak or draw 77%

Either team wins 69%

Fajr Sepasi, draw no bet 33%

Aluminium Arak, draw no bet 67%

Fajr Sepasi +1.5 71%

Aluminium Arak +1.5 92%

Fajr Sepasi or draw, 2+ goals 16%

Aluminium Arak or draw, 2+ goals 48%

These numbers come from each team's scoring record, home advantage and recent form. They're estimates, not guarantees.